Republicans win a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, sharing control of Congress and complicating both parties’ agendas
Republicans regained control of the US House of Representatives on Wednesday, returning the party to power in Washington and handing leverage to Conservatives to blunt President Joe Biden’s agenda and spur a spate of investigations. But a flimsy majority will pose immediate challenges to GOP leaders and complicate the party’s ability to govern.
More than a week after Election Day, Republicans secured the 218th seat needed to move the House of Representatives away from Democrat control. The full extent of the party’s majority may not be clear for a few days – or weeks – as votes are still being counted in contests.
But they are on track to cobble together what may be the party’s narrowest majority in the 21st century, and to rival 2001, when the Republicans had just a nine-seat majority, 221-212 with two independents. That’s a far cry from the resounding victory Republicans predicted for this year’s midterm elections, when the party hoped to reset the agenda on Capitol Hill by capitalizing on economic challenges and Biden’s waning popularity.
Instead, Democrats showed surprising resilience, sticking to temperate suburban districts from Virginia to Minnesota and Kansas. The results could complicate House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy’s plans to become Speaker, as some Conservative members have questioned whether they support him or have imposed conditions on their support.
The narrow margins have turned Republican politics on its head and led to finger-pointing at what went wrong. Some in the GOP have blamed Donald Trump for the worse-than-expected result. The former president, who is expected to announce a third White House bid on Tuesday, lifted candidates in this year’s primary who fought for victory in the general election.
Despite the GOP’s overwhelming showing, the party will still hold remarkable power. Republicans will take control of key committees, giving them the power to make laws and investigate Biden, his family and his government. There is particular interest in investigating the foreign dealings of the President’s son, Hunter Biden. Some of the most conservative lawmakers have raised the prospect of an impeachment trial against Biden, although that will be much more difficult for the party to achieve with a slim majority.
Any legislation emerging from the House of Representatives could face major odds in the Senate, where Democrats won the smallest majority on Saturday. Both parties are expecting a December 6 Senate runoff in Georgia as their last chance to replenish their ranks.
With such a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, there is also the possibility of legislative chaos. The dynamic essentially gives a single member tremendous influence over what happens in the chamber. This could create particularly difficult circumstances for GOP leaders as they try to garner support for must-pass measures that keep government funding going or raise the debt ceiling.
The GOP’s failure to secure more victories — it needed a net five-seat win to gain a majority — was particularly surprising because the party entered the elections and benefited from congressional maps being redrawn by Republican lawmakers. History was also on the side of the Republicans: the party that holds the White House had lost congressional seats during the first term of virtually every new president in modern times.
The new majority will usher in a new group of leaders in Washington. If McCarthy were elected to the top post to succeed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he would chair what is likely to be a rowdy conference of House Republicans, most of whom are allied with Trump’s hard-headed policies. Many Republicans in the new Congress dismissed the results of the 2020 presidential election, though claims of widespread fraud have been refuted by courts, election officials and Trump’s own attorney general.
McCarthy won the nomination for Speaker of the House on Tuesday, with a formal vote when the new Congress meets in January.
“I’m proud to announce that the era of one-party Democratic rule in Washington is over,” McCarthy said after winning the nomination.
Republican candidates campaigned to cut taxes and increase border security. GOP lawmakers could also withhold aid from Ukraine if it goes to war with Russia, or use threats to default on the country’s debt as leverage to force cuts in social spending and entitlements — albeit all such efforts will be more difficult given how small the GOP majority may end up being.
As a senator and then vice president, Biden spent a career working out legislative compromises with Republicans. But as president, he was clear about what he saw as a threat from the current Republican Party.
Biden said the midterm election showed voters want Democrats and Republicans to find ways to work together and govern bipartisanally, but also noted that Republicans hadn’t gotten the electoral surge they had been betting on, vowing, “That I will not fundamentally change anything.”
AP VoteCast, a broad poll of national voters, showed voters were heavily influenced by high inflation and concerns about the fragility of democracy. Half of voters said inflation is factored in significantly, with groceries, petrol, housing, groceries and other costs skyrocketing over the past year. Slightly fewer – 44% – said that the future of democracy was their main concern.
Contrary to GOP expectations, Biden did not entirely blame inflation, with nearly half of voters saying the above-average prices were more likely due to factors beyond his control. And although the president was criticized by a pessimistic electorate, some of those voters supported Democratic candidates.
Democrats also likely benefited from anger at the Supreme Court overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade, which cemented a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion. Voters in Michigan voted to amend their state constitution to protect abortion rights, while the Kentucky Republican far more reliably rejected a constitutional amendment that declared no abortion rights.
Overall, 7 out of 10 voters said the Supreme Court decision overturning the 1973 decision enshrining abortion rights was a major factor in their midterm decisions. VoteCast also showed that the reversal was largely unpopular. About 6 in 10 say they are upset or unhappy about it. And about 6 in 10 say they support legislation that would guarantee access to legal abortion nationwide.
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