Patriot missile defense systems: what they are and what they do
Patriot missile systems have long been a coveted item for the United States and allies in contested areas of the world as a coveted shield against incoming missiles. In Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific, they protect themselves against possible attacks from Iran, Somalia and North Korea.
So it was a critical turning point when it was announced this week that the US had agreed to send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine — something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been trying to do for months to bolster his country’s air defenses. US officials have confirmed the agreement and an official announcement is expected shortly. However, experts warn that the effectiveness of the system is limited and it may not turn the tide in the war.
A look at what the system is and what it does:
WHAT IS THE PATRIOT?
The Patriot is a surface-to-air guided missile system, first deployed in the 1980s, capable of attacking aircraft, cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles.
Each Patriot battery consists of a truck-mounted launch system with eight launchers, each capable of holding up to four interceptor missiles, a ground-penetrating radar, a control station, and a generator. The Army said it currently has 16 Patriot battalions. A 2018 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies found that these battalions operate 50 batteries, which have more than 1,200 interceptor missiles.
The US batteries are regularly used around the world. In addition, Patriots are also operated or purchased by the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Romania, Sweden, Poland and Bahrain.
The Patriot system “is one of the most widely used and most reliable and proven airborne missile defense systems on the market,” and the theater’s ballistic missile defense capability could help defend Ukraine against Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles, Tom Karako said , director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
PATRIOT EXPENSES
Over the years, the Patriot system and missiles have been continuously modified. The current interceptor missile for the Patriot system costs about $4 million per shot and the launchers cost about $10 million each, CSIS reported in its July missile defense report. At this price point, using the Patriot to shoot down the much smaller and dramatically cheaper Iranian drones that Russia has bought and deployed in Ukraine is neither cost-effective nor optimal.
“Firing a million-dollar missile at a $50,000 drone is a losing proposition,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps reserve colonel and senior adviser at CSIS.
DEPLOYMENT CONCERNS
A Patriot battery can require as many as 90 soldiers to operate and maintain it, and the US hesitated for months to deploy the complex system because sending forces to Ukraine to operate it made the Biden administration shy non-starter is.
But there were also concerns that deploying the system could provoke Russia or risk a missile being launched hitting Russia, which could further escalate the conflict. Officials say the urgent pleas of Ukraine’s leaders and the devastating destruction of the country’s civilian infrastructure, including loss of power and heat over the protracted winter, ultimately overcame US reservations about supplying the patriots.
Training will be a key hurdle. US troops must train Ukrainian forces on how to use and maintain the system. Army Soldiers assigned to the Patriot battalions receive extensive training to effectively locate, lock on with radar and fire at a target.
The US has trained Ukrainian troops in other complex weapons systems, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS. In many cases, they were able to shorten the training and get Ukrainian troops to the front lines within weeks. Officials have declined to provide details on how long Patriots training would last and where exactly it will be held.
PATRIOT SKILLS
Ukraine faces a number of Russian threats, and the Patriot is good against some and not so useful against others.
A former senior military official with knowledge of the Patriot system said it will be effective against short-range ballistic missiles and represent a strong message of US support, but a battery will not change the course of the war.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the Ukraine deal has not yet been made public, noted that a Patriot battery has a long firing range but can only cover a limited wide area. For example, patriots can effectively protect a small military base, but not fully protect a large city like Kyiv. They could only cover part of a city.
Patriots are often deployed as a battalion consisting of four batteries. That will not be the case with Ukraine, which officials said would receive a battery.
The Patriot has a more powerful radar that can discriminate targets better than the Soviet-era S-300 system used by the Ukrainians, but it has limitations, both Karako and Cancian said.
Still, the Patriot’s ability to target some ballistic missiles and aircraft could potentially protect Kyiv if Russian President Vladimir Putin carries out his ongoing threat to deploy a tactical nuclear device. But that would depend on how the gun was delivered, Karako said. If it was a gravity bomb dropped by a fighter plane, the system could target the plane; If it was a cruise or short- to medium-range ballistic missile, it could potentially intercept the missile as well, Karako said.
Raytheon, manufacturer of the Patriot, says it has been involved in 150 ballistic missile interceptions since 2015. However, the Patriot’s success rate has been repeatedly questioned. A 1992 Government Accountability Office report said it could not find any evidence to support reports that the system had a 70% success rate against Scud missiles in the Gulf War. In 2018, Saudi Arabia’s success in using Patriots against missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen was questioned when video emerged of systems failure.
But beyond the Patriot’s capabilities, his performance is a huge declaration of support for Ukraine.
“There’s a lot of symbolism here,” Cancian said.
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