Inflation and bird flu are making Thanksgiving a real turkey this year
In early November, Hays Culbreth’s mother sent out a survey to some family members. She said she could only afford to do two sides for her group of 15 this Thanksgiving and asked them to vote for their favorites.
Culbreth suspects green beans and macaroni and cheese will make the cut, but his favorite — sweet potato casserole with a brown sugar crust — won’t.
“Talk about ruining Thanksgiving,” joked Culbreth, 27, a financial planner from Knoxville, Tennessee.
Americans are bracing for a costly Thanksgiving this year, with double-digit percentage increases in the prices of turkey, potatoes, stuffing, canned pumpkin and other staples. The US government estimates that food prices will rise 9.5% to 10.5% this year; historically, they’ve only increased by 2% annually.
Lower production and higher labor, transportation and item costs are part of the reason; Illness, inclement weather and the war in Ukraine also contribute.
“It really isn’t a defect. This is a tighter supply with some pretty good reasons for it,” said David Anderson, professor and agricultural economist at Texas A&M.
Wholesale turkey prices are at record highs after a difficult year for US herds. A particularly deadly strain of bird flu — first reported in February on a turkey farm in Indiana — has wiped out 49 million turkeys and other poultry in 46 states this year, according to the US Centers for Disease Control.
As a result, U.S. turkey inventories per capita are at their lowest since 1986, said Mark Jordan, chief executive officer of Leap Market Analytics, based in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Jordan predicts that the wholesale price for an 8- to 16-pound frozen turkey — the kind typically bought for Thanksgiving — will hit $1.77 a pound in November, up 28% from the same month last year.
Even so, there will be plenty of whole birds for Thanksgiving tables, Jordan said. Companies have been shifting a higher percentage of birds to the overall turkey market in recent years to take advantage of consistent holiday demand.
And not every producer was equally affected. Butterball – which supplies about a third of Thanksgiving turkeys – said bird flu has only affected about 1% of its production as safety measures were put in place after the last major flu bout in 2015.
But it might be harder for shoppers to find turkey breasts or other cuts, Jordan said. And higher ham prices give cooks fewer cheap alternatives, he said.
Avian flu has also pushed egg prices to record highs, Anderson said. In the second week of November, a dozen grade A eggs were sold for an average of $2.28, more than double the year-earlier price, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Egg prices would have been higher even without the flu, Anderson said, because of the rising cost of the corn and soy grits used in chicken feed. Ukraine is normally a major exporter of corn and the loss of this supply has pushed up world prices.
Add that to the rising prices of canned pumpkins — a 30-ounce can is up 17% year over year, according to market researcher Datasembly — and it’s clear that Thanksgiving dessert will also be more expensive. Libby, owned by Nestle — which produces 85% of the world’s canned pumpkins — said pumpkin harvests were in line with previous years but had to offset higher labor, transportation, fuel and energy costs.
Do you plan to fill pages? That too will cost you. A 16-ounce pack of filling costs 14% more than last year, Datasemby said. And a 5-pound bag of red potatoes in the second week of November averaged $3.26, or 45.5% more than a year ago.
Craig Carlson, the CEO of Chicago-based Carlson Produce Consulting, said frost and a wet spring severely stunted potato growth this year. Growers also raised prices to offset higher costs for seeds, fertilizers, diesel fuel and machinery. Production costs are up as much as 35% for some growers this year, an increase they can’t always recoup, Carlson said.
Higher labor and food costs also make ordering a ready meal more expensive. Whole Foods is promoting a classic Thanksgiving feast for eight for $179.99. That’s $40 more than the advertised price last year.
The good news? Not every item on the Christmas shopping list is significantly more expensive. Cranberries had a good harvest, and prices rose less than 5% between late September and early November, said Paul Mitchell, an agricultural economist and professor at the University of Wisconsin. According to the USDA, green beans cost just 2 cents more per pound in the second week of November.
And many grocers are discounting turkey and other holiday staples in hopes that shoppers will spend more on other items. Walmart promises turkeys for less than $1 a pound and says ham, potatoes and stuffing will cost the same as last year. Kroger and Lidl have also lowered prices, allowing shoppers to spend $5 or less per person for a meal for 10. Aldi lowers prices to 2019 levels.
But Hays Culbreth isn’t optimistic about his run-up. He’s not a great cook, so he plans to pick up some pumpkin pies at the grocery store on his way to his family’s festival.
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